Spirited Energy
Manitoba doesn’t need another gas plant
It needs heat that works twice. Spirited Energy 2.0 — soil, water, energy — same dual ledgers as the master report.
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The cold morning test
5,096 MW
23 January 2024 peak PD. Brandon gas: outages/deratings in 3 of 10 highest winter events PD.
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The choice
Gas
$3.0B · 750 MW nameplate
20-yr $4.5–6.9B
Hybrid
$1.95B gross · dual ledger
20-yr $1.5–1.8B
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Dual ledger explained
MWth never sums into MW electric. Effluent stage 50 MWth → +38 MW net; compute reject (95 MWth) gated, load netted first.
Retired composite 895 MW is forbidden.
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Scenarios vs shortfall
- Conservative 413 MW
- Reference 688 MW (+88)
- Full 788 MW (+188)
- Shortfall 600 MW
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Delivered $/kW
Pass gate: reference gross $2,834/kW beats gas nameplate $4,000/kW — no ITC, no derate assumed. Net $2,180; derate sensitivity $5,714.
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Twenty-year bands
Non-overlapping. Savings $2.7–5.4B.
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Reliability / ELCC ask
3-of-10 is an audit request — not a flat 30% derate-as-fact.
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Water honesty
Surplus floor ≥35%, first lien. Plan yield 130–320 t/yr against a ~3,050 t/yr external gap — no single measure closes it, ours included.
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Zero eligible MW until gates
Heat customer · grid headroom · contracted buyer. Missing any gate → 0 MW.
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Heat path + electric ledger
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Winter load physics
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Basin evidence provenance
Emerson spine, binational nutrients, gates — metadata in docs/sources.md.
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Standards & auditability
- ISO 19115 / 19157 / 8000-style method — not formal certification
- PUB classes O/C/E/A/PD
assumptions.yaml+ 71 automated tests- WCAG AA token contrast on white
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Seven Board orders
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Stakeholder reply cards
- Batteries vs vortex: reservoirs for days; BESS for hours.
- Wastewater ≠ capacity: count hub zero in conservative; seek TSA.
- ITC may fail: gross already beats nameplate economics.
- Civil cost: trench-share + HDD bounds; phase behind demand.
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Pilot ask
Authorize the effluent-stage heat pilot (Order 6) and public 10–20 kW heat-first compute (Order 7) on separate tracks, with public metered filings. Approving these costs little; approving $3.0B gas forecloses the alternative.
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Same arithmetic. In public. Before the concrete.
Governing package: /report/ · Numbers: assumptions.yaml