_meta:
  retired_composite_mw: 895
  retired_reason: "mixed 145 MWth into electric MW ledger"
  public_headline: "413–788 MW electric by accreditation (reference 688 MW covers 600 MW shortfall)"

peak_record_mw:
  value: 5111.5
  unit: MW
  evidence: PD
  note: "all-time system peak, 20 January 2025 at -32.7 C in Winnipeg; Manitoba Hydro
    via CBC. Beat the previous record by about 183 MW, putting that record near
    4,928 MW. CORRECTED: this entry previously read 5,096 MW dated January 2024,
    which cannot be right — it exceeds the record it would have had to beat."

# Winter load vs temperature — research heating model (winter_heat_and_peak_projections_analysis.md)
# P(T) = base + max(0, (thresh - T) * beta). Beta is calibrated so P(-35C) = peak_2024_mw [PD].
winter_load_base_mw:
  value: 3000
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "non-heating base load in research heating model"

winter_heat_threshold_c:
  value: 15
  unit: "C"
  evidence: E
  note: "temperature below which heating demand initiates"

winter_heat_beta_mw_per_c:
  value: 42.23
  unit: "MW/C"
  evidence: E
  note: "calibrated (peak_2024 - base) / (thresh - (-35)); research form ~48.5 before PD anchor"

winter_design_temp_c:
  value: -35
  unit: "C"
  evidence: PD
  note: "cold-morning design temperature used with peak_2024_mw"

shortfall_2030_mw:
  value: 600
  unit: MW
  evidence: PD
  note: "Hydro drought-year firm shortfall by 2030"

unmanaged_electrification_mw:
  value: 675
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "identity, not a forecast: 45,000 of about 300,000 gas-heated Winnipeg homes at 15 kW resistance-equivalent draw with the furnace off at -35C. Distinct from shortfall_2030_mw and not added to it; a dual-fuel heat pump keeps the coincident draw far below this line."

# --- what the province already has, and is being asked to spend against ---
grid_hydro_share_pct:
  value: 96
  unit: "%"
  evidence: O
  note: "share of Manitoba generation from hydro; CER 2023 reports 96.9%, stated as over 96%"
grid_renewable_share_pct:
  value: 99.7
  unit: "%"
  evidence: O
  note: "share of Manitoba generation from water, wind and biomass; CER 2023 (33.2 of 33.3 TWh)"
grid_carbon_intensity_g_kwh:
  value: 1.3
  unit: g CO2e/kWh
  evidence: O
  note: "Manitoba grid emission intensity 2022; ECCC National Inventory Report 1990-2022 / CER Provincial Energy Profile"
canada_grid_intensity_g_kwh:
  value: 121
  unit: g CO2e/kWh
  evidence: O
  note: "Canadian generation intensity 2023; NRCan Energy Use Data Handbook (33.7 t/TJ = 121 g/kWh), sourced to NIR 2000-2023"
us_grid_intensity_g_kwh:
  value: 350
  unit: g CO2e/kWh
  evidence: O
  note: "US total output emission rate 2023; EPA eGRID2023 national CO2e 770.884 lb/MWh ≈ 350 g/kWh"
gas_wet_year_fossil_free_pct:
  value: 99.8
  unit: "%"
  evidence: PD
  note: "Hydro's average-year claim for the Brandon expansion if units run rarely; verify against IRP/PUB filing"
gas_wet_year_intensity_g_kwh:
  value: 2
  unit: g CO2e/kWh
  evidence: PD
  note: "Hydro's 'still under two tonnes per GWh' average-year claim; same units as g CO2e/kWh"
gas_dry_year_emissions_t:
  value: 1600000
  unit: t CO2e
  evidence: E
  note: "drought scenario if the full 750 MW run often (~50% CF at ~0.49 t/MWh); not a Hydro finding"
gas_dry_year_intensity_g_kwh:
  value: [40, 50]
  unit: g CO2e/kWh
  evidence: E
  note: "implied grid intensity if ~1.6 Mt is added to a ~33 TWh year; still well below a fossil-heavy grid"
newpcc_rebuild_capex_b:
  value: 3.17
  unit: B
  evidence: PD
  note: "North End Water Pollution Control Centre rebuild, City of Winnipeg; the second three-billion-dollar debt"

gas_capex_b:
  value: 3.00
  unit: B
  evidence: PD
  note: "Brandon expansion capital cost"

gas_nameplate_mw:
  value: 750
  unit: MW
  evidence: PD
  note: "nameplate rating"

gas_derate_scenario_mw:
  value: 525
  unit: MW
  evidence: A
  note: "30% event-informed derate SCENARIO, not a finding"

gas_cold_events_outage:
  value: [3, 10]
  unit: events
  evidence: PD
  note: "deratings in 3 of the top 10 multi-day winter peak events of the past decade; Manitoba Hydro under PUB questioning by K. Elson (Manitoba Eco-Network), reported by CBC News 11 Aug 2026. The window is a decade, not five years."

gas_start_reliability_pct:
  value: 91
  unit: "%"
  evidence: PD
  note: "Hydro-quoted overall start reliability"

bess_mw:
  value: 300
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "battery storage, 4-hour (1,200 MWh)"

dsm_mw:
  value: 150
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "demand-side management / response"

intertie_mw:
  value: 300
  unit: MW
  evidence: A
  note: "physical winter import capability, not demonstrated coincident winter import: capability in a different hour is not delivery in the same hour. Deliverability study required; undemonstrated until then."

hub_thermal_mwth:
  value: 50
  unit: MWth
  evidence: E
  note: "NEWPCC effluent-stage hub, delivered heat: 37.6 MWth source (4C river-safe draw) + 12 MW compressor work at delivered COP 4.13"

hub_contingent_thermal_mwth:
  value: 95
  unit: MWth
  evidence: A
  note: "compute reject heat ceiling; authorization via Order 7; counts 0 on winter firm ledger until metered, peak-netted, and heat-first in operation"

hub_net_electric_mw:
  value: 38
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "effluent-stage displaced electric heating: 50 MWth delivered less 12 MW compressor; assumes displaced load is resistance heating (COP 1) — stated assumption with ASHP sensitivity"

hub_contingent_net_mw:
  value: 0
  unit: MW
  evidence: C
  note: "compute-derived winter credit counted today; reject heat only ever credits net of its own IT load, so it enters as demand response (curtail + BTES), never as firm supply"

heat_pump_cop_delivered:
  value: 4.13
  unit: ratio
  evidence: E
  note: "delivered heat per unit electric input, low-lift sewage-source heat pump (~3.3 units source heat moved per unit work)"

hub_effluent_stage_net_mw:
  value: 38
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "effluent-only stage net electric value (equals hub_net_electric_mw; kept for stage naming)"

scenario_conservative_mw:
  value: 413
  unit: MW
  evidence: C
  note: "300 BESS + 75 DSM (50% stress haircut) + 0 intertie + 38 hub effluent"

scenario_reference_mw:
  value: 688
  unit: MW
  evidence: C
  note: "300 + 150 + 200 intertie (200 of 300, deliverability-weighted) + 38 hub effluent; no compute credit"

scenario_full_mw:
  value: 788
  unit: MW
  evidence: C
  note: "300 + 150 + 300 intertie + 38 hub effluent; no compute credit"

hybrid_capex_gross_b:
  value: 1.95
  unit: B
  evidence: E
  note: "BESS 0.60 + network 0.50 + hub/piping 0.45 + DSM 0.40; excludes the purchase cost of the 200 MW import credit"

hybrid_itc_b:
  value: 0.45
  unit: B
  evidence: A
  note: "30% Clean Technology ITC if eligibility confirmed"

hybrid_capex_net_b:
  value: 1.50
  unit: B
  evidence: C
  note: "gross less ITC"

gas_20yr_low_b:
  value: 4.5
  unit: B
  evidence: E
  note: "low fuel/carbon/financing corner"

gas_20yr_high_b:
  value: 6.9
  unit: B
  evidence: E
  note: "high corner"

hybrid_20yr_low_b:
  value: 1.5
  unit: B
  evidence: E
  note: "low corner"

hybrid_20yr_high_b:
  value: 1.8
  unit: B
  evidence: E
  note: "high corner; band is net of ITC — see gross-basis keys for the no-ITC sensitivity"

hybrid_20yr_gross_low_b:
  value: 1.95
  unit: B
  evidence: E
  note: "net band low + 0.45 ITC add-back (no-ITC sensitivity)"

hybrid_20yr_gross_high_b:
  value: 2.25
  unit: B
  evidence: E
  note: "net band high + 0.45 ITC add-back (no-ITC sensitivity); savings vs gas still 2.3-5.0B"

node_band_kw:
  value: [10, 20]
  unit: kW
  evidence: E
  note: "locked per-site IT band"

hyperscale_nodes:
  value: [12500, 30000]
  unit: nodes
  evidence: C
  note: "nodes equal to 250-300 MW; test-proven"

eligible_mw:
  value: 0
  unit: MW
  evidence: C
  note: "compute contribution to winter firm ledger today; stays 0 until reject heat is metered and peak-netted — authorization (Order 7) is not gated"

conditional_locations:
  value: 717
  unit: locations
  evidence: C
  note: "mapped conditional locations"

conditional_it_mw:
  value: 11.4
  unit: MW
  evidence: C
  note: "conditional IT ceiling across 86 sized buildings"

remediation_floor_pct:
  value: 35
  unit: "%"
  evidence: E
  note: "surplus share to remediation, first lien"

p_border_target_t:
  value: 1400
  unit: t P/yr
  evidence: O
  note: "binational border objective at Emerson, t P/yr"

p_stack_midcase_t:
  value: 1260
  unit: t P/yr
  evidence: E
  note: "full multi-measure stack mid-case, t P/yr"

p_newpcc_recovery_t:
  value: 130
  unit: t P/yr
  evidence: E
  note: "NEWPCC Ostara-class / nutrient solids recovery in mid-case stack (~4% of p_gap_t)"

p_gap_t:
  value: 3050
  unit: t P/yr
  evidence: E
  note: "external-load gap, t P/yr"

p_surplus_range_t:
  value: [15, 320]
  unit: t P/yr
  evidence: E
  note: "compute-surplus-funded remediation by node count"

# --- Summer add-on (NOT winter firm capacity) ---
pdrc_summer_flux_mwth:
  value: 180
  unit: MWth
  evidence: E
  note: "PDRC radiative heat rejection at +35C: 2.4M m2 x 75 W/m2 — thermal flux, NOT electric"

pdrc_summer_shave_mw:
  value: 50
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "avoided ELECTRIC A/C load: 180 MWth flux / chiller COP ~3.5 — summer residual ONLY; not winter firm"

btes_summer_chiller_shave_mw:
  value: 70
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "BTES / Heat Host avoids parasitic chillers in summer — not winter firm"

pdrc_roof_area_m2:
  value: 2400000
  unit: m2
  evidence: E
  note: "commercial/institutional rooftop deployment envelope for PDRC estimate"

pdrc_net_cooling_w_m2:
  value: 75
  unit: W/m2
  evidence: E
  note: "illustrative net radiative cooling power under peak summer sun"

summer_peak_band_mw:
  value: [3800, 4200]
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "illustrative summer heatwave system peak band"

summer_peak_anchor_mw:
  value: 3514
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "illustrative chart anchor at +35C; not a filed Hydro peak"

# Summer load vs temperature — same illustrative form as fig13 / se-charts
# P(T) = base + max(0, (T - thresh) * beta); at +35C equals summer_peak_anchor_mw.
summer_load_base_mw:
  value: 2800
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "summer load curve base in fig13-style sketch"

summer_heat_threshold_c:
  value: 18
  unit: "C"
  evidence: E
  note: "temperature above which summer load rises in the chart sketch"

summer_heat_beta_mw_per_c:
  value: 42
  unit: "MW/C"
  evidence: E
  note: "slope chosen so P(+35C) = summer_peak_anchor_mw"

summer_pdrc_onset_c:
  value: 20
  unit: "C"
  evidence: E
  note: "temperature above which PDRC shave ramps in fig13"

summer_pdrc_beta_mw_per_c:
  value: 3.33
  unit: "MW/C"
  evidence: E
  note: "electric shave ramp; at +35C yields ~50 MW = pdrc_summer_shave_mw"

reservoir_buffer_pct_illustrative:
  value: 13
  unit: "%"
  evidence: E
  note: "schematic dual-season reservoir buffer — NOT metered Hydro data"

mb_private_households:
  value: 518054
  unit: count
  evidence: PD
  note: "StatCan 2021 Census private households in Manitoba; verify against census table before filing use"

tests_passing:
  value: 108
  unit: count
  evidence: C
  note: "automated tests including summer-addon-not-winter-firm guards, action page, live motion charts, se-charts winter/summer research-model parity, and master/landing figure sync, all passing 2026-08-30"

gis_layers_valid:
  value: 34
  unit: count
  evidence: C
  note: "all geometry/CRS valid"

ca_observations:
  value: 17629
  unit: count
  evidence: O
  note: "Canadian water-quality observations"

us_observations:
  value: 137540
  unit: count
  evidence: O
  note: "US observations at 3,574 stations"

emerson_load_days:
  value: 902
  unit: days
  evidence: C
  note: "paired TP sample-day loads at Emerson"

# Reconstructed 2026-08-19 from the generated seat threads under
# research/dist/seat-threads/ after an accidental revert of this file.
# Value, unit, evidence class, and note are taken verbatim from those threads.
btes_winter_planning_mw:
  value: 120
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "2035 planning tranche for coincident winter discharge from density-island BTES micro-districts; contingent on two gates — a screening test requiring at least three density islands with LCOH below proxy plus a summer charge source, then a metered single-field pilot; NOT in 413/688/788; equals the summer 50+70=120 by coincidence only — do not add the two 120s. Source: manitoba-energy-plan, P7 GroundPeak, gates G6/G7"

elcc_bess_illustrative:
  value: 0.85
  unit: fraction
  evidence: E
  note: "illustrative accreditation haircut on 4-hour BESS; not an ELCC result; used only for the 613 MW sensitivity"

elcc_dsm_illustrative:
  value: 0.8
  unit: fraction
  evidence: E
  note: "illustrative accreditation haircut on residual DR; not an ELCC result; used only for the 613 MW sensitivity"

hub_source_thermal_mwth:
  value: 37.6
  unit: MWth
  evidence: E
  note: "4 °C × 9.4 MWth/°C. 9.4 is rounded; 195 ML/d × 4186 J/kg·K is about 9.45 MWth/°C. 4 × 9.4 = 37.6 is exact by that round."

hub_compressor_mw:
  value: 12
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "compressor load at delivered COP 4.13 on effluent stage (49.6 / 12)"

hub_delivered_thermal_exact_mwth:
  value: 49.6
  unit: MWth
  evidence: E
  note: "37.6 source + 12 compressor work; hub_thermal_mwth rounds to 50 for planning"

hub_resistance_coincidence_pct:
  value: 100
  unit: "%"
  evidence: E
  note: "stated assumption: share of 50 MWth serving buildings that would otherwise use electric resistance at the critical hour; 50 × pct − 12 = net electric credit"

intertie_reference_mw:
  value: 200
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "300 MW physical transfer × 2/3 cold-hour planning credit; not an ELCC result; availability has not been demonstrated; conservative counts 0; no existing firm contract identified"

unmanaged_electrification_hydro_coincident_mw:
  value: 288
  unit: MW
  evidence: E
  note: "45000 homes × hydro_electric_heat_coincident_kw; 45,000 × 6.4 = 288; not added to shortfall_2030_mw; not a replacement for unmanaged_electrification_mw"

year_round_bess_overlay_min_c:
  value: -10
  unit: "C"
  evidence: E
  note: "peak-hour battery overlay applies in months whose mean daily min is this cold or colder (core winter). Not a metered dispatch threshold. Batteries remain two 300 MW × 2 h spikes, not monthly MW."

btes_winter_eligible_mw:
  value: 0
  unit: MW
  evidence: C
  note: "BTES counts 0 on the winter firm ledger; the 2035 density-island planning tranche is a summer/shoulder addon and is not winter firm capacity"

peak_record_temp_c:
  value: -32.7
  unit: "C"
  evidence: O
  note: "coldest hour of the record winter peak, 20 January 2025 (Environment Canada); distinct from winter_design_temp_c = -35"

scenario_illustrative_accreditation_mw:
  value: 613
  unit: MW
  evidence: C
  note: "illustrative accreditation sensitivity: 688 stack with elcc_bess_illustrative and elcc_dsm_illustrative haircuts applied; not an ELCC result"

scenario_conservative_no_hub_mw:
  value: 375
  unit: MW
  evidence: C
  note: "conservative stack with the thermal hub counted at zero; hub credit is the difference against the reference case"

scenario_reference_no_intertie_mw:
  value: 488
  unit: MW
  evidence: C
  note: "reference stack with the 200 MW import credit removed; 688 only holds if both unfilled DR and undemonstrated winter import show"

carbon_price_2030_cad_t:
  value: [115, 170]
  unit: CAD/t
  evidence: O
  note: "federal benchmark trajectory: 115 CAD/t in 2026 rising to 170 CAD/t in 2030; industrial exposure is set by OBPS output-based standards, not the headline rate"

import_20yr_cost_b:
  value: null
  unit: B
  evidence: A
  note: "left open on purpose: no firm winter import contract has been identified, so the 20-year purchase cost is uncosted. Do not invent a number to close the comparison — the hybrid capex is quoted excluding it."

hydro_electric_heat_coincident_kw:
  value: 6.4
  unit: kW
  evidence: PD
  note: "per-home coincident electric heating draw at the cold hour used for unmanaged_electrification_hydro_coincident_mw; 45,000 x 6.4 = 288 MW"

winnipeg_normals_mean_c:
  value: [-16.39, -13.2, -5.78, 4.43, 11.57, 16.98, 19.69, 18.76, 12.74, 5.04, -4.85, -13.15]
  unit: "C"
  evidence: O
  note: "monthly mean temperature normals, Winnipeg Richardson Int'l A (Environment Canada), January to December"

winnipeg_normals_min_c:
  value: [-21.42, -18.27, -10.73, -2.04, 4.46, 10.71, 13.45, 12.12, 6.38, -0.48, -9.22, -17.77]
  unit: "C"
  evidence: O
  note: "monthly mean daily minimum normals, Winnipeg Richardson Int'l A (Environment Canada), January to December"

winnipeg_normals_max_c:
  value: [-11.31, -8.09, -0.8, 10.87, 18.61, 23.2, 25.88, 25.35, 19.04, 10.52, -0.47, -8.49]
  unit: "C"
  evidence: O
  note: "monthly mean daily maximum normals, Winnipeg Richardson Int'l A (Environment Canada), January to December"

year_load_unmanaged_mw:
  value: [4538, 4405, 4087, 3720, 3445, 3018, 3131, 3109, 3364, 3654, 4023, 4384]
  unit: MW
  evidence: C
  note: "modelled monthly system load with unmanaged electrification; heating months use mean daily minimum, cooling months mean daily maximum. Not metered Hydro demand and not an export forecast."

year_load_managed_mw:
  value: [4200, 4067, 3749, 3682, 3407, 2938, 3041, 3021, 3326, 3616, 3985, 4046]
  unit: MW
  evidence: C
  note: "same model with managed electrification (dual-fuel and peak-hour overlay applied); paired with year_load_unmanaged_mw in the year-round figure"