# Heat-pump rollout and peak study

Separate book. Never add Hydro’s 600 MW shortfall to the 675 MW conversion stress. Never add either to the winter resource stack.

## Chapter 1 — Is 600 real?

Organic peak in 2030 from the 2025 record at 1.2%/yr is **5426 MW** (growth **314 MW**). That is not 600. Verdict: **keep_pd**. 600 is a drought firm-supply gap. Do not replace `shortfall_2030_mw`. Do not add it to 675.

## Chapter 2 — Is 675 real?

NRCan 2021 gas heating stock **296,800** × 15% × 15 kW = **667.8 MW**. CER 51% of 518,054 households = **264,208** → **594.5 MW**. The live **675 MW** is the round identity 300,000 × 15% × 15 kW. Sources disagree. Verdict: **fence**. Do not add to the shortfall.

## Chapter 1b — Is −35 °C real?

Registry already splits the 20 January 2025 peak at **−32.7 °C** from the **−35 °C** design hour. Fixture counts are in `research/data/climate_fixtures/`. Climate Atlas factors are **E** placeholders until pasted; missing Atlas → observations only.

## Chapter 3 — Rollout

At 4,000 homes/year (E), 2030 share of NRCan stock is **8.1%** — below 15%. 2040 tail is **21.6%**. Household book (2030 installs): **$288,000,000**. Utility book on the NRCan furnace-out peak: **$2.67B** of Brandon-like capital. Never add the two books. Dual-fuel extra coincident MW at the design hour is **0**.