_meta:
  book: heat_pump_study
  never_add_to:
    - shortfall_2030_mw
    - scenario_reference_mw
    - unmanaged_electrification_mw

nrcan_mb_gas_heating_stock:
  value: 296800
  unit: count
  evidence: O
  note: "NRCan NEUD 2021 Table 21 Manitoba: natural gas medium 53.3k + high 243.5k"

cer_mb_gas_share:
  value: 0.51
  unit: fraction
  evidence: O
  note: "CER: 51% of Manitoba households primary heat on gas"

mb_private_households_ref:
  value: 518054
  unit: count
  evidence: PD
  note: "same StatCan 2021 count as assumptions.yaml mb_private_households; not copied into the winter stack from this book"

kw_resistance_at_design:
  value: 15.0
  unit: kW
  evidence: E
  note: "round identity 300000 × 0.15 × 15 kW = 675 MW; heat-pump furnace-off backup at -35C; dual-fuel extra coincident MW is 0"

conversion_share:
  value: 0.15
  unit: fraction
  evidence: E
  note: "furnace-off heat-pump share used in the 675 identity; Hydro main case is dual-fuel"

round_identity_n:
  value: 300000
  unit: count
  evidence: E
  note: "round of NRCan 296.8k; this is how 675 was constructed, not a census count"

organic_growth_rate:
  value: 0.012
  unit: fraction/year
  evidence: PD
  note: "regulator paper: roughly 1.2%/yr peak growth; not the drought shortfall"

years_record_to_2030:
  value: 5
  unit: years
  evidence: E
  note: "2025 record peak to 2030 planning year"

warming_band_low_extreme_factor:
  value: 0.70
  unit: fraction
  evidence: E
  note: "placeholder until Climate Atlas extreme-day factors are pasted; not an in-house GCM"

warming_band_high_extreme_factor:
  value: 0.90
  unit: fraction
  evidence: E
  note: "upper band: extremes persist more than the low band"

annual_installs_e:
  value: 4000
  unit: homes/year
  evidence: E
  note: "installer-pace placeholder until Efficiency Manitoba program numbers are pasted"

net_cost_per_home_cad:
  value: 12000
  unit: CAD
  evidence: E
  note: "net of rebate placeholder; dual-fuel vs furnace-out difference not yet itemized"

years_to_2030:
  value: 6
  unit: years
  evidence: E
  note: "2024–2030 inclusive span used for the 15% timing test"

years_to_2040:
  value: 16
  unit: years
  evidence: E
  note: "2024–2040 tail"

hydro_baseline_gt_2032_mw:
  value: 496
  unit: MW
  evidence: PD
  note: "2025 IRP Appendix 7.2 Table A7.2.2, CT-Natural Gas row: S1A and S1B (1-Baseline load) = 496 MW cumulative installed additions to 2032. Not a split of shortfall_2030_mw."

hydro_medium_gt_2032_mw:
  value: 744
  unit: MW
  evidence: PD
  note: "Same table, S2B (2-Medium load, strategy B Net-Zero Grid 2035) = 744 MW. Medium load assumes a net-zero economy by 2050."

hydro_medium_minus_baseline_mw:
  value: 248
  unit: MW
  evidence: C
  note: "744 − 496; extra CT-Natural Gas when the model moves from 1-Baseline to 2-Medium. Not heating alone, and not the 600 MW drought gap."